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Post by askthepizzaguy on Jul 10, 2013 18:23:54 GMT
Why did Pleo go on and on and on about your result? It makes me suspect that he knows there is a 3rd party. He's definitely not an ordinary Pleo. He's too on the ball, too cautious, too attentive to detail, too nit-picky. He knows something. He's not vanila.
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Post by askthepizzaguy on Jul 10, 2013 18:28:45 GMT
Fast analysis of BillMc's posts:
No obvious crumbing. He's not indicated his partners, in a way I can see. However, he's posted so little that I can do a very careful re-read and speculate further later on.
Other things I feel:
Jaade is not Mason will BillMc Near certainty D1 post Jul 2 2013 at 2:56pm
Gnarly is not Mason with BillMc. Near certainty D1 post Jul 5 2013 at 10:28am Gnarly's post D2 where he voted Bill
Therefore, I do not believe the Masons have any powers other than being masons. 3 masons with powers, especially considering town's other powers, seems OP.
I think we're dealing with, worst case, 2 or 3 vanilla townies who know one another are townie, and some power roles flapping in the breeze.
That's bad because we absolutely have to murder the masons, and that's (possibly) THREE murders, plus we have to murder the doctor.
That's FOUR NIGHTS already in our murder queue, which doesn't leave a whole lot for us to pick at during the day. And I'd need to get gnarly lynched today in order to make serious progress.
I dislike that the mafia only has one murder, and no doctor here. There is too much ammunition already against us compared to what we have as compensation.
I'll wait until the game is over to do a fair assessment of balance, but right now, I can say our biggest problem is we have too many people to murder, and not enough people to lynch. That almost always spells defeat.
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Post by askthepizzaguy on Jul 10, 2013 18:36:31 GMT
Advantages: Well, I think we're winning the early information war, and we've already identified most of our major threats (Mason, Doctor, Detective) or are in position of potentially exposing them by Watcher (the vigilante).
I'm not sure it's enough compensation for the early suspicions on Dizzy and Burby.
Those votes on Guiri were a killer. It's gonna keep stinging for a while, that.
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Post by askthepizzaguy on Jul 11, 2013 1:55:57 GMT
Patricia seems to be non-mason. I wouldn't be surprised if she was, in fact, our vigilante.
The evidence for is that she seems to not be Bill's partner and there are only so many players who could be. And we already know several other players are not the vigilante.
The evidence against is that if she were a vigilante, she should have fired at gnarlycharlie last night, or BillMc, and that didn't happen.
Right now, I'd lean against, but if she shows up on our Watcher scanners killing someone, I wouldn't bat an eye.
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Post by askthepizzaguy on Jul 11, 2013 2:01:43 GMT
Also, Burby, I wouldn't be too pessimistic about our chances today. There's enough people considering gnarly's death that it could really happen. And that would truly make our moves today so, so worth it. I admit it can go the other way, but why think gloomy thoughts. Let's be optimistic!
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Post by dizzymrslizzy on Jul 11, 2013 3:06:37 GMT
Let's have a round table to start tonight discussions.... in case Burby or Pizza is no longer with us! Your top 2-3 choices in preference order: a) For the Kill 1 - Jaade 2- BillMc b) For me to Watch 1- Gnarly if he lives and Pizza is also still alive 2- Cookies? 3- c) For Pizza to Block 1- Gnarly if still alive 2- Colby the possible town tracker/watcher 3- Possibly Pleo if he's the Vig 4- Possibly Cookies d) Who are the Masons? 1- Maha 2- Pleo 3- Colby e) Who is the Vig/SK? 1- I think Cookies is the Vig.... I think the Vig purposely killed Jan to smudge me. And Cookies has been on my back all D1.
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Post by dizzymrslizzy on Jul 11, 2013 3:07:40 GMT
I think Pizza has a fair shot to pull it off. I think it could be 60/40 leaning towards Pizza living vs Gnarly.
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Post by dizzymrslizzy on Jul 11, 2013 3:09:26 GMT
Patricia seems to be non-mason. I wouldn't be surprised if she was, in fact, our vigilante. I highly doubt Patricia is a Mason as well. She's too cuddly with you IMO, and I think that she wouldn't be if she was a Mason. I also like your assessment that Pleo is a Mason. I think that could be plausible as well.
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Post by askthepizzaguy on Jul 11, 2013 4:09:13 GMT
This is fun. I like this team. No matter how well we do in this game, I think you guys are awesome.
In response to your thingy:
a) For the Kill 1 - Jaade (Absolutely top priority- We cannot allow a watcher (which she could be), bodyguard, or doctor to live) (or) 1 - Gnarlycharlie (if we block Jaade instead of gnarly, then we cannot allow gnarly to get a scan off.)
2- BillMc, once our doctor is dead. Masons cannot be allowed to exist. 3- Colby (I get a strong feeling he is our town watcher or tracker, or a mason. He's something nasty, and he's going to kill Dizzy via the lynch, I can feel the force telling me so...) 4- Pleonast (Probable mason) b) to Watch 1- Gnarlycharlie if he is not lynched today, I have a feeling the vigilante may strike here first tonight. 2- Askthepizzaguy if gnarly is lynched today. The vigilante would then try to execute me. Also possible, the vigilante strikes me instead of gnarlycharlie. That's it, really. The doctor is likely to protect me, gnarly, or billmc tonight, in order of likelihood, BillMc, followed by gnarly, followed by me. We already think we know who she is. I need that vigilante, that's our top priority.
c) For Pizza to Block 1- Gnarlycharlie- prevents another scan result. 2- Jaade- allows us to kill anyone we wish, including Jaade, BillMc, or gnarly, instead of blocking gnarly. Solves gnarly forever. 3- No sense in blocking a suspected mason. Whoever we suspect to be the vig would be next. d) Who are the Masons? 1- BillMc (definitely) 2- Pleonast (Very very likely) 3- Colby (possible) 4- Mahaloth (possible) 5- others?
e) Who is the Vig/SK? Anyone who is not a mason, and not Pleonast, and not Jaade, and not gnarly, and not us, is a candidate. I am not sure. I highly doubt a vig is a mason, that's too powerful.
1. Meeko is a possibility, given how nonsensical the kill on Silver Jan was. I also don't sense masonry from him. 2. Cookies is a possibility. Don't get a strong mason sense from her. 3. Patricia maybe. No masonry here, most likely.
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Post by dizzymrslizzy on Jul 11, 2013 4:39:44 GMT
Do you know what I find funny.....Every time I've been Scum before (3 or 4 times)....Burby was ALWAYS on my team! LOL How's that for random.org
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Post by dizzymrslizzy on Jul 11, 2013 4:40:10 GMT
And Pizza, I'm vastly enjoying your commentary knowing that you are on my team! LOL
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Post by askthepizzaguy on Jul 11, 2013 10:28:45 GMT
@ Reply 126, Day 2 "DISTINGUISHED!!!!" Couldn't resist.
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Post by texcat on Jul 11, 2013 18:30:25 GMT
I really think Pleo must be the vig/SK. Why else would he be insistent that Gnarly stay alive to be killed tonight? And I am suspecting 3rd party SK.
I agree that Jaade should be our first priority. Once we eliminate the doc we have more freedom to kill who we like.
It was bad luck for Pizza's plan that Gnarly claimed so early. It would have been much better if you'd had a few nights of "results". But on the silver lining side, we have a good shot at lynching a claimed cop. Bwhahaha. And I wouldn't put it past you to talk your way into staying alive a few more Days.
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Post by askthepizzaguy on Jul 11, 2013 19:34:20 GMT
I don't really think I can do it this time. That would surprise the hell out of me.
All I care about at this point are two things:
1) Gaining maximum information possible, so that your murder choices will all be dead-on, the best possible outcomes for us every night phase
2) Causing maximum damage to the town, in a way that limits their ability to have and gain information, and remove their deadliest powers.
So far, we have achieved much of what we want.
The third stage is surviving the game. Given the setup, and what information the town has, and how they're already on us, I have my doubts we will achieve stage three.
But achieving one and two may help.
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Post by texcat on Jul 11, 2013 19:48:29 GMT
Where has BillMc gone? He never answered all my questions and he hasn't weighed in on the claim/counter issue has he? I want to know how many masons there are!
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