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Post by sublight on Jun 24, 2009 2:03:04 GMT
Back again
I guess since the sheriff knows that AllWalker isn't the MS, s/he isn't likely to be protecting him, so a NK on AllWalker is pretty likely to succeed.
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Post by sublight on Jun 24, 2009 2:04:10 GMT
Although there wouldn't be any point to protecting the MS at this anyway, since that role and the TD are useless now (although town doesn't know that, but they have to think it's pretty likely).
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Post by special on Jun 24, 2009 3:16:29 GMT
they can suspect it, I suppose, but they can't be sure there wasn't a successful attempt by the MS last Night
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Post by sublight on Jun 24, 2009 4:14:21 GMT
Allwalker's also been giving pretty level-headed advice, so I can get behind a NK on him.
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pcm
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Post by pcm on Jun 24, 2009 4:21:20 GMT
Good point - I've been thinking we should not kill the vanilla pool (as Allwalker most likely is, yeah I forgot about claptree even though it was mentioned one page back, what can I say, I hadn't had the morning caffeine) but you have made me rethink. My thoughts - not trying to teach anyone to suck eggs - just trying to put my reasoning out there Conventionally, killing in the vanilla pool is bad because it reduces the whole unconfirmed/confirmable ratio with the idea that power roles are confirmable - or at least by end game very trustworthy. The vanilla pool is the only place for scum to hide to prevent a mass claim winning in the end game. Hence reducing the vanilla pool is a bad thingand so I would normally oppose knocking off Allwalker In this set up the only confirmable role left is the TD (AON) all the others could have been recruited at some point and thus a mass claim is unlikely to work, so vanilla kills are as good as power roles.
Now if we kill AON we eliminate the last confirmed role - hopefully the Sherif is figuring there are few recruits left so the TD is useless - that said the Sheriff may also be following our logic but it is a night kill with a high probability of success. If we kill Allwalker - we have a high probability of success but we will not hit a power role. However it is a massive smudge to the power roles as why would scum kill so obviously into the vanilla pool (based on the myralene - claptree vote) - they must be running short of targets hence scum lie in the power roles. Could work at least undermine the power roles a little - kind of convoluted though If we go for Rab Ren or Cowgirl it has a higher chance of failure - but more chance of getting the sheriff.
I am for AON or Allwalker now - my mind is like putty.
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pcm
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Post by pcm on Jun 24, 2009 4:32:09 GMT
Good point - I've been thinking we should not kill the vanilla pool (as Allwalker most likely is, yeah I forgot about claptree even though it was mentioned one page back, what can I say, I hadn't had the morning caffeine) but you have made me rethink. My thoughts - not trying to teach anyone to suck eggs - just trying to put my reasoning out there Conventionally, killing in the vanilla pool is bad because it reduces the whole unconfirmed/confirmable ratio with the idea that power roles are confirmable - or at least by end game very trustworthy. The vanilla pool is the only place for scum to hide to prevent a mass claim winning in the end game. Hence reducing the vanilla pool is a bad thingand so I would normally oppose knocking off Allwalker In this set up the only confirmable role left is the TD (AON) all the others could have been recruited at some point and thus a mass claim is unlikely to work, so vanilla kills are as good as power roles.
Now if we kill AON we eliminate the last confirmed role - hopefully the Sherif is figuring there are few recruits left so the TD is useless - that said the Sheriff may also be following our logic but it is a night kill with a high probability of success. If we kill Allwalker - we have a high probability of success but we will not hit a power role. However it is a massive smudge to the power roles as why would scum kill so obviously into the vanilla pool (based on the myralene - claptree vote) - they must be running short of targets hence scum lie in the power roles. Could work at least undermine the power roles a little - kind of convoluted though If we go for Rab Ren or Cowgirl it has a higher chance of failure - but more chance of getting the sheriff.
I am for AON or Allwalker now - my mind is like putty.
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Post by sublight on Jun 24, 2009 6:21:13 GMT
That's true, the recruiting aspect changes the standard strategies. If killing another vanilla can throw suspicion on the sheriff, that could be worth trying.
But... If one of us were the sheriff, then the logical choice to take out would be Kat. If she's not taken out, it's a good sign that we don't have the sheriff.
1. We take out AllWalker. If Kat scans one of us, we claim to be sheriff and Kat is scum.
or
2. We take out AllWalker, and point out that the scum must know he's vanilla, since he was proved such by Myrn's vote on Day 1. Therefore, the only reason they'd spend a NK on a vanilla is if they already have the power roles. Kat must be scum because she's the one who can blow our cover and would the first killed if we had the sheriff and knew she wasn't protected.
Both of these also work for AotN, but I think AllWalker is more dangerous to us.
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pcm
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Post by pcm on Jun 24, 2009 7:42:35 GMT
Sounds good to me I think we can run with both 1 and 2 if required. Might be best to float out some parts of 2 and see if any town figure out that scum are intentionally killing into the vanilla pool. I wonder if a lead in to the day of 'heh dumb scum killed a VT wooohhoo our luck is holding', followed by a discussion of why Allwalker (active player, onto something etc) then someone can point out that scum will be searching for the Sherrif - and that cannot have missed the Windolene - claptree vote, hence they deliberately killed and VT. Hopefully Rab Ren or someone will twig what that implies for the power roles. Dunno , just we need to drip it out there rather than come out and say it.
It occurs to me that a last minute pile on, if the opportunity presents itself, is going to be hard as most of us are way east and unlikely to be around to coordinate a pile on. Unless we stay up late , and as much fun as this is, I am not that committed.
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pcm
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Post by pcm on Jun 24, 2009 7:48:28 GMT
"But... If one of us were the sheriff, then the logical choice to take out would be Kat. If she's not taken out, it's a good sign that we don't have the sheriff."
Good point That makes a good case for any one claiming to be Sherrif I am the sheriff - I can't be recruited because Kat is still alive, if I had been recruited Kat would be dead. The only explanation for Kat not being dead is the scum know I am out there and / or Kat is recruited. Has fingered me as scum, she must be scum. It should at least get the Sheriff to counter claim
Admittedly we still have the whole who is the Sheriff protecting WIFOM and the above strategy will certainly confirm the Sheriff and Kat by the end of the day, so AON will be a good target for tomorrow night as we are back to confirmed/unconfirmed ratio problems again.
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Post by sublight on Jun 24, 2009 11:57:50 GMT
Ok, well, if I don't get a chance to chime in again before going to bed, my vote is to ice AllWalker tonight, and we can try and get Kat lynched tomorrow.
If she doesn't scan one of us, should we still try claiming or throwing doubt on Kat?
In that situation, we could bring up the idea that AW's death means the sheriff must be scum (wait a bit, though, since the ideal situation would be for a townie to ask the same question), in the hopes of maybe sparking a tell by the real sheriff. If this idea gets traction we could question then why Kat hasn't been NK'd, but this might be harder to sell since she's just picked a townie (or we could go aggressive and claim that this casts doubt on Kat and the townie she scanned)
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Post by lucifer on Jun 24, 2009 13:18:58 GMT
Thinking about our situation while driving to work this morning. First off, it sounds like we're all on board for AllWalker Night Kill. I'll submit our vote later this morning.
Second, regarding our strategy...
If, say, sublight gets fingered by Kat toDay, what do you think about having PCM claim Psychoanalyst to dispute Kat? I.E. PCM chimes in and says "I'm the real Psych, I have investigated sublight and he is Vanilla Town (or the Sheriff, maybe?). Kat obviously bussed Ulla earlier in the day to gain cred and now that we're nearing Lynch or Lose, she's going balls out against town."
I think the key to a successful Psych counter-claim is to reveal as little information as possible. Insist that only revealing the alignment of Kat and sublight is the safest bet for the town, since any additional information can only hurt the town and benefit the Pods.
If we miss the Sheriff tonight, we're gonna be against the wall. If Kat fingers one of us, it's gonna be really dicey and I think we'll have to do something ballsy.
If the above-mentioned scenario begins to play out, I think our best bet will be for our accused and claimant to lay low for a day or so, to push our game clock closer to sundown, then pull the trigger.
Please let me know if you think this is a sound strategy.
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Post by special on Jun 24, 2009 14:09:55 GMT
Here's my thoughts,
We're basically playing this game against Kat.
We cannot kill her outright, because she's most likely protected.
If she investigates one of us as Scum, we lynch that Scum.
We can't counterclaim psychoanalyst now. It's too late.
Each Night, she'll need to find a Scum (and she cannot find Winston) or the Town will have to guess correctly the following Day.
As soon as she fails or we kill the sheriff. Town will most likely be unable to pick a cohesive target, and we will control the lynch.
It might be possible for one of us to claim sheriff. It would have to be done after Kat reveals her results and hopefully before the real sheriff claims.
in any case,
Julie, we want to kill Allwalker. [/color]
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Post by lucifer on Jun 24, 2009 15:10:33 GMT
I'll defer to you, Ed, because you are a much more experienced player than me.
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Post by lucifer on Jun 24, 2009 15:12:07 GMT
FYI, I asked Julie what results she retuns if, say, Kat investigates the Sheriff, here is her response
"The Psychoanalyst gets one of two answers for all queries, either "X is a Pod Person" or "X is not a Pod Person."
...so the Psych cannot know any power roles.
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Post by lucifer on Jun 24, 2009 15:12:59 GMT
Here's my thoughts, We're basically playing this game against Kat. We cannot kill her outright, because she's most likely protected. If she investigates one of us as Scum, we lynch that Scum. We can't counterclaim psychoanalyst now. It's too late. Each Night, she'll need to find a Scum (and she cannot find Winston) or the Town will have to guess correctly the following Day. As soon as she fails or we kill the sheriff. Town will most likely be unable to pick a cohesive target, and we will control the lynch. It might be possible for one of us to claim sheriff. It would have to be done after Kat reveals her results and hopefully before the real sheriff claims. in any case, Julie, we want to kill Allwalker. [/color][/quote] I concur. Kill AllWalker
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